State senate candidates and committees from both parties have spent a grand total of $5.8 million in Virginia on broadcast, cable and radio advertising. Republicans hold the edge, having spent $3 million on advertising compared to $2.7 million for Democrats.

Democrats currently hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate, but their grip on power is tenuous given Virginia’s political climate. Moreover, they’ve had to defend districts where in past cycles the GOP didn’t even field a candidate. This year, the battle to control the state Senate been fought primarily in thirteen districts, which have been blanketed with ads.

Unfortunately for the candidates, the Virginia Legislature paid no attention to the geography of media markets when it drew up the legislative districts. The result is uniquely shaped boundaries that can spill-in and spill-out of several media markets at a time, making it difficult to efficiently reach the right voters through mass media.

Take the Roanoke media market, where candidates and issue groups together have spent $1.9 million. The map below illustrates how districts 20, 21, 22 and 38 spill-in and spill-out of the city’s TV market. In the case of districts 38 and 22, only voters from certain counties fall into the Roanoke market. Other voters who reside outside of the market are not exposed to the campaigns’ Roanoke advertising at all.

In districts where there is significant market spill-in and spill-out, campaigns must determine if a worthwhile percentage of their targeted voters will actually receive exposure to their broadcast ads.

For example, district 38 falls into three broadcast markets: Bluefield-Beckley, Roanoke and Tri-Cities. As the state’s biggest spender, state Sen. Phillip Puckett (D) — who didn’t face an opponent in 2007 — has placed over a half a million dollars on ads in these markets on broadcast and cable. Puckett has placed $545,000 on broadcast in all three markets and $26,000 on cable in Bluefield-Beckley only.

Adam Light, Puckett’s Republican challenger, has spent over $380,000 on advertising in Bluefield-Beckley, Roanoke and Tri-Cities. Light has placed $323,000 on broadcast, $53,000 on cable and $7,000 on radio. He has received additional $38,000 in advertising support from the Republican Party of Virginia on cable and radio.

This map shows district 38 and the counties that fall into each broadcast TV market.

To put this spending into context, here is a map of the district and each TV market to their full extent.

Despite his massive outlay, Puckett is in danger of losing his seat after 13 years in office. If he’s defeated on Tuesday, questions should be asked about the effectiveness of his advertising strategy.

As an alternative to the large scope of broadcast, advertising on cable TV allows candidates to more precisely target the voters within their districts. Instead of blanketing a whole media market with advertisements, campaigns can pick and choose which cable systems cover their district. The drawback to advertising on cable, however, is that the audience is a lot smaller.

Total Spend by District
At least thirteen state senate districts have been blanketed with ads: VA SD-01, VA SD-06, VA SD-09, VA SD-17, VA SD-20, VA SD-21, VA SD-22, VA SD-29, VA SD-36, VA SD-37, VA SD-38, VA SD-39 and VA SD-40.

Total Spend by Candidate

Total Spend by Market
Where in Virginia have these campaign dollars been spent? Candidates and issue groups together have spent $1.9 million in Roanoke, $1.6 million in Washington, DC, $890k in Norfolk, $498k in Tri-Cities, $413k in Richmond, $377k in Charlottesville and $135k in Bluefield-Beckley.

A version of this blog post was published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider

 While negative advertising has been around in retail as well, usually it is based on the smaller share attacking the industry leader, not a back and forth battle. The classic examples are Pepsi vs. Coke and more recently Mac vs Windows:

 Usually the leader would ignore the competitor to maintain their brand’s positive image. However, a new trend emerging is an actual response from the leaders in the example of the recent Verizon and AT&T 3G ad campaign.  Verizon’s television ads display a map comparing the two coverages and even uses a play on words for AT&T’s exclusive contract with the popular IPhone, mimicking “There’s an app for that” with “There’s a map for that”.  The difference from other retail negative campaigns is that AT&T responded to these claims with an ad of their own showing their coverage map and even hired a Hollywood actor to deliver the message. Here are the two ads:

AT&T might have been just trying to dispel misleading accusations, but the fact that they rolled out a large-scale campaign instead of a simple press release is significant. The two companies even sued and countersued each other reminiscent of a bitter political campaign debate.  Whether this is a bigger trend or an isolated instance is yet to be seen.

Virginia broadcast and cable began airing new political advertising this week from the candidates running for Attorney General and Lieutenant Governor.

Ken Cuccinelli for Attorney General, Steve Shannon for Attorney General, and Bill Bolling for Lieutenant Governor all placed ads in the Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri-Cities, and DC markets, while Deeds and McDonnell continued with their statewide advertising schedules. The above map compares how much each candidate spent by market for the week of 9/22-9/28.

This chart details how much money each candidate and issue group has placed in each market since the week of 8/31, and show the grand total of spending since 5/11.

Cuccinelli placed a total of $672k in Norfolk, Richmond, and Roanoke broadcast for five weeks of advertising from 9/29-11/2.

Click here to see a map of Cuccinelli’s spending.

Shannon placed a total of $140k in Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri-Cities, and DC broadcast and cable for one week, 9/22-9/27. He placed $100k of the total sum in Norfolk, Richmond, and Roanoke broadcast, and he placed $40k of the total sum in Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, Tri-Cities, and DC cable networks NB, CNN, FXNC, HLN, MNBC, TNT, and USA.

Click here to see a map of Shannon’s spending.

Bolling placed a total of $74k in Norfolk, Richmond, Roanoke, and DC broadcast and cable for 9/22-9/28. He placed $67k of the total sum in broadcast, and he placed $8k of the total sum in Norfolk and DC cable networks CNN, DISC, ESPN, and HIST.

Click here to see a map of Bolling’s spending.

Creigh Deeds placed a total of $807k in Virginia broadcast and cable for 9/22-9/29. He placed $661k of the total sum in broadcast, and he placed $146k of the total sum in cable networks CNN, ESPN, TLC, AEN, DISC, HGTV, LIF, TBS, TNT, USA, BRVO, and MNBC.

Click here to see a map of Deeds’ spending.

Bob McDonnell placed a total of $648k in statewide broadcast and cable for 9/21-9/28. He placed $528k of the total sum in broadcast, and $120k of the total sum in cable CNB, AMC, CNN, DISC, ESPN, FXNC, FOOD, HGTV, HIST, TNT, USA, TWC, SPK, and LIF.

Click here to see a map of McDonnell’s spending.

This chart details how much money each candidate and issue group has placed in each market since the week of 8/25, and show the grand total of spending since 5/11.

Deeds placed a total of $630k in statewide broadcast and cable for 9/15-9/21. He placed $512k of the total sum in broadcast, and he placed $117k of the total sum in the cable networks CNN, ESPN, TLC, AEN, DISC, HGTV, LIF, TBS, TNT, USA, BRVO, MNBC. You can view his ads here. Below is a heat map that shows Deeds’ spending in each DMA.

Click here to see a full size version of the map.

McDonnell placed a total of $602k in statewide broadcast and cable for 9/14-9/20. He placed $482k of the total sum in broadcast, and he placed $119k of the total sum in the cable networks CNN, AMC, ESPN, LIF, FOOD, FXNC, HGTV, HIST, SPK, TNT, TWC. You can view his new ad, “Protect”, here. Below is a heat map that shows McDonnell’s spending in each DMA.

Click here to see a full size version of the map.

Virginia Common Sense placed a total of $237k in broadcast and cable for 9-10-9/18. They placed $248k of the total sum in broadcast, and they placed $38k of the total sum in cable. Below is a heat map that shows Virginia Common Sense’s spending in each DMA. Click on the map to expand.

Click here to see a full size version of the map.

With two months to go until Election Day, both Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds’ advertising campaigns have launched into full swing with ads scheduled to start airing in the Washington, DC market the week of 9/7-9/14.

McDonnell placed a statewide total of $488k in broadcast and cable for 9/7-9/14. He placed $399k of the total sum in broadcast, and $88k of the total sum in cable.

Deeds placed a statewide total of $573k in broadcast and cable for 9/7-9/14. He placed $472k of the total sum in broadcast, and $100k of the total sum in cable.

Each candidate had previously placed two week’s worth of broadcast and cable advertising in all other markets in Virginia before entering the DC market. McDonnell has spent a total of $828k in broadcast and cable advertising since 8/25, while Creigh Deeds has spent a total of $1.1 million since 8/25. Virginia Common Sense has spent at least $709k in broadcast and cable advertising for 8/26-10/1.

This chart compares the total dollars spent between each candidate and issue group from 8/31 onwards.

Having entered into the Northern Virginia area, each campaign can expect to spend a much more significant amount of more campaign dollars on advertising each week.