Political Ads Inundate Media Markets

Rates Soar Fivefold in Cities With Tight Races, Like Syracuse and Seattle, Prompting Candidates to Find Creative Solutions

By Elizabeth Williamson and Suzanne Vranica

U.S. political candidates have amassed more advertising cash this year than ever before. The hard part is finding places to spend it.

In the busiest markets, which include California, Nevada, Arizona and Florida, prime spots are virtually closed to nonpolitical advertisers until after Nov. 2.

Ad rates are up fivefold in markets with newly tight races, including Syracuse, N.Y., the site of two toss-up House races, and Seattle, where Democratic Washington Sen. Patty Murray is fighting a surge by Republican challenger Dino Rossi.

The glut has forced candidates and their ad buyers to wait, innovate or try to game the system.

Given its small budget and soaring prices, the Louisiana Democratic Party couldn’t afford to run in prime time a documentary-style, two-minute ad about Republican Sen. David Vitter’s admitted past ties to a Washington madam. Instead, it ran late-night ads for a week in early September. A longer version ran on two separate websites.

Vitter spokesman Luke Bolar said Democratic nominee Charlie Melancon “is obviously really desperate if he has to resort to personal attacks to duck and divert attention from his abysmal voting record on the issues.”

A Supreme Court ruling in January freed corporations and unions to spend unlimited amounts on independent campaign advertising. Combined with a series of competitive races in high-priced television markets, ad spending is on track to top $4.2 billion this year, compared with about $2.5 billion in 2008.

“It’s the strongest market I have ever seen for a non-presidential race,” said Paul Wasserman, general sales manager at WLPG in Miami, an ABC affiliate owned by the Washington Post Co., where ad rates adjacent to news programming, a favorite slot, have doubled from pre-election levels.

As a result, digital-ad agencies have seen political spending on the Web change this season, with more campaigns paying to run video ads on Web sites. Previously, they would post TV commercials on YouTube and hope they went viral.

After the Supreme Court ruling, one veteran buyer booked nine months’ worth of prime TV spots in expected competitive states on behalf of outside political groups backing Republicans, the buyer said. That locked out some Democratic buyers, he said, and locked in a low rate. The buyer cancels unneeded time two weeks in advance, as is generally required in such contracts.

Ad buyers with union clients are doing the same, said Eric Adelstein of Chicago-based buyers Adelstein Liston. “You try to max out the best-rated stations first” for groups, he said. Some stations have started turning down ad buys from candidates, because by tradition they pay a lower rate than independent advocacy groups.

Smart Media Group, a suburban Washington ad buyer with GOP clients, maintains a Twitter feed of Democratic ad cancellations. The feed alerts Republicans to buying opportunities, and serves as a barometer of Democrats’ shifting spending priorities.

In California, some GOP-backing groups are finding inexpensive time on Christian and talk-radio stations instead of regular broadcast and cable TV. Online, conservative groups compete for spots on the Drudge Report, while liberal groups vie for placement on the Huffington Post Web site.

In Illinois, ads for federal and local races have jammed Chicago news broadcast schedules, forcing some political buyers to chase tiny audiences in the wee hours, use cable, or make a single, expensive network buy, for example, during a football game.

The Susan B. Anthony List, an antiabortion group, is doing a lot more direct mail. Postage alone comes to $300,000. “We’re keeping the postal service in business by ourselves,” said group spokeswoman Kerry Brown.

Some things haven’t changed this year from prior campaigns: production quality. Revere America, a nonprofit that supports opponents of the health-care overhaul, is saving money with ads that superimpose candidates’ names and faces in several races across the country over the same generic video and voiceover.

Political campaigns “will always have sloppier creative ads,” said Josh Koster, managing partner of Washington-based agency Chong and Koster, who is advising a number of candidates for the midterms. “Where else do you see ads that go from script to airing in less than 24 hours?”

Three of the most populated states have major political races coinciding with major sports followings.  In New York City, where the Yankees, Giants, and Jets reign in the fall, there will be competitive races for Senate and Congress in both New York and Connecticut. In California, both the Governor and Senate seat will be heating up as will the division leading Padres and USC college football.  Meanwhile in the heart of Texas, a contested Governors race will compete for headlines with the Cowboys, Longhorns, and first place Rangers.

When looking at research in New York City, Dallas, and Los Angeles, there are some interesting trends in sports viewership in order to reach voters. Using survey data from Arbitron, there are distinct differences when comparing consistent voters 35 and older in statewide elections to non voters in the same age range.  In Dallas, ESPN ranks as the second most watched cable network, and 40% of respondents are “Very interested” in NFL (20% more than non-voters). When looking at broadcast viewing habits, sports ranks as the 3^rd highest TV program typically watched (14% higher).  Meanwhile baseball is the craze in New York City, where “Very interested” in MLB leads the category, and voters use the internet for sports scores 20% more than non-voters, the highest percentage difference.  In Los Angeles, voters are 33% more likely to be “Very interested” in college football, and four of the top seven highest voter percentage cable networks are sports related.

While buying sports can be costly, when looking at specific games or teams and considering the delivery audience, there are efficient ways to buy sports. In Dallas, Cowboys games generate huge audiences, including a 16.8 rating for cable, which is larger than any broadcast show that week. However at $50k a spot, this is not an efficient cost per point.  This does not mean to avoid football, just to buy the appropriate game and rate. The Texas/Oklahoma game will deliver a 15.6 rating on broadcast, and at only $22k a spot will be more cost effective than 12 regular primetime programs that week.  In LA, cable is efficient when looking at USC Football, which pulls in a 1.5 rating, two times higher than the second rated show, and at $7k, it is cheaper per point than 10 other networks. In San Diego, the Chargers are a good buy as well since their 20.5 rating on broadcast is more cost efficient than 20 other programs, including non-primetime shows like the Price is Right.

Therefore, here are the key dates in the fall for the three major sports in several battleground states (PA, OH, CA, FL, TX, NY), which should be cost effective and deliver huge audiences. These teams are either highly ranked, big rivalries, or playoff contenders.

Key College Football Dates/Games:

• 9/11 – Ohio State vs Miami, Penn State vs Alabama, Florida St vs Oklahoma
• 9/25 – Texas vs UCLA
• 10/2 – Florida vs Alabama, Texas vs Oklahoma
• 10/9 – Florida vs LSU, Miami vs Florida St
• 10/16 – Texas vs Nebraska, USC vs California
• 10/30 – Penn State vs Michigan, USC vs Oregon, Florida vs Georgia

NFL Key Dates/Games:

• 9/12 – Cowboys vs Washington Redskins
• 9/19 – New York Giants vs Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets vs New England Patriots,
• 9/26 – Miami Dolphins vs Jets, Houston Texans vs Cowboys
• 10/3 – Philadelphia Eagles vs Redskins
• 10/24-5 – San Diego Chargers vs Patriots, Dolphins vs Pittsburgh Steelers, Cowboys vs Giants

Key MLB matchups before the playoffs on cheaper local networks:

• 9/3-9/5 – Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals
• 9/10-9/12 – New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers
• 9/13-9/15 – Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays
• 9/16-9/19 – San Diego Padres vs Cardinals
• 9/20-9/23 – Yankees vs Rays
• 9/24-9/26 – Yankees vs Boston Red Sox, Reds vs Padres
• 10/1-10/3 – Yankees vs Red Sox

The teams above will all be contenders to make and go far in the playoffs on Fox and TBS, which begins around 10/6 and will end near Election Day.

While the success of the politician and local team may not coincide, at least you can win by efficiently reaching the voters at the same time.

These market conditions make it increasingly difficult for media planners to accurately forecast TV costs.  Industry planning tools such as Spot Quotations And Data (SQAD) are becoming less accurate in planning true costs for 2009. Planners may want to look back to very recent market cost experiences this year and compare these to the projected SQAD costs for the same period.  Once adjustment factors are developed, they could be utilized for projecting forward.

While these are unfortunate times for the TV industry, they are creating opportunities for savvy advertisers.