Archive for the ‘Blog’ Category

Statewide Political Shifts 2008-2011: Midwest

Friday, August 26th, 2011

The most important region in American politics is the Midwest.  It is a region comprised of medium to large states that are generally competitive for both parties.  The competitive states of the Midwest have 81 electoral votes, roughly 20 percent of the entire electorate, and among the most volatile.  For the examination of future political trends, I will continue to look at the 2008 Presidential vote, the Congressional two-party vote (removing all third parties) and relevant statewide races in 2010, comparing state level Obama approval ratings with his national average for the first six months of 2011 (measured by Gallup), and the decline in Democratic Party identification, also measured by Gallup.  It should be pointed out that the national baseline for that Gallup approval ratings poll is 47 percent, and at the moment Obama is significantly under 47 percent in Gallup surveys.

Looking at these states more in depth:

Indiana: Indiana was Obama’s most shocking victory in 2008.  Indiana is a state that George W. Bush won by 20 points in 2004 and has long been the most Republican Midwest state.  In 2008, Obama ran over 20 points ahead of what John Kerry earned in 2004.  Its swing state status didn’t last long.  In 2010, Republican Dan Coats breezed his way to winning back his old Senate seat.  Republicans received 59 percent of the statewide two-party vote—roughly the same as Bush’s outsized 2004 triumph.  Obama is currently running five points behind his national average in approval polls.  There has been a seven point decline in Democratic Party identification, and this is among the states with the largest Republican registration advantages traditionally.  Obama’s approval rating would have to be well above 50 percent for Indiana to be in play again.  Absent a 1984-style economic boom, you can count Indiana in the Republican column again.

Iowa: Obama showed strength in Iowa before.  His victory in the 2008 caucuses legitimated his presidential bid.  He won the state, which George W. Bush won in 2004, by a strong margin.  Since then, things have not gone nearly as well for Democrats.  Senator Chuck Grassley had minimal opposition in his reelection campaign and Terry Branstad was elected governor by nearly twenty points.  The GOP won the two-party Congressional vote by 12 points (though failed to knock off any of the three Democratic incumbents).  Obama has been running two points ahead of his national average here, but the Democratic decline in the past two years has been precipitous.  Iowa is among the states closest to the political center of gravity.  It will be hard for either party to win without Iowa.

Michigan: In retrospect, the moment John McCain’s presidential hopes ended was the day when his campaign leaked that he was pulling out of Michigan.  McCain had previously shown appeal to this Democratic-leaning swing state, and the easy victory Obama won in the state was characteristic of his strong Midwestern performance in 2008.  But in the next two years, Democrats went from controlling every major facet of state government to losing the Governor’s race, both chambers of the state legislature, and two Congressional seats.  Republicans won 55 percent of the two-party Congressional vote, and Governor Rick Snyder did three points even better than that.  Obama has been three points ahead of his national approval rating here, though there has also been a six point Democratic decline in the past two years.  Michigan should remain a few points more Democratic than the national average, but a Democrat cannot win the White House without Michigan.  If Michigan is lost to Obama, his opponent can start measuring the Oval Office drapes.

Minnesota: Minnesota hasn’t voted for a Republican for president since 1972, the longest streak of any state.  Obama was able to win in 2008 without incident.  Election night 2010 produced a split result.  Democrats were able to flip the Governor position in a very good Republican year, but Republicans against expectations gained control of both houses of the state legislature for the first time in the modern era.  Republicans lost the two-party Congressional vote by one point and Obama has been five points ahead of his national approval rating.  Minnesota is the most Democratic of all the states listed here and the least likely to flip parties in 2012.  A Republican victory here would be indicative of a smashing national victory.  Republicans can easily defeat Obama without winning Minnesota, though it can be expected to be targeted by both sides.

Missouri: For years, Missouri was viewed as the ultimate bellwether state.  It had correctly picked the winner of the presidential election since 1904, except for one misstep in 1956.  That was broken in 2008 when McCain narrowly won Missouri.  2010 was a banner Republican year in Missouri.  In a matchup of two political dynasties, Roy Blunt easily defeated Robin Carnahan for the open Senate seat.  Republicans won a massive 61 percent of the two-party Congressional vote.  The already approved redistricting map will limit Democrats to one St. Louis and one Kansas City district, with a sea of red surrounding them.  Missouri seems to be drifting away from swing state status, and it is almost impossible to imagine the Republican nominee losing it in 2012.

Ohio: The centerpiece state for Republican presidential strategy fell to Obama in 2008.  Obama won 51 percent of the vote, not a large victory, but Ohio wasn’t a required state for getting to 270 electoral votes either.  After some difficult years, the state Republican Party rebounded strongly in 2010.  Republicans won the Governor and Senator races, both chambers of the legislature, and five House seats, leaving Democrats in a few seats adjoining Lake Erie.  Obama is running two points behind the national average and there has been an eight point decline in Democratic Party identification.  Obama is currently on the path to losing Ohio, and it would take a major economic course correction to win it.

Wisconsin:  Obama won the Democratic nomination in 2008 in a two week stretch of primaries and caucuses after Super Tuesday where his campaign was better organized than Hillary Clinton’s.  The most significant of these was the Wisconsin primary.  Obama made a strong connection with Wisconsin, and he received 56 percent of the vote, better than in typically more Democratic Minnesota.  Republicans had a dream year in 2010.  Republicans won the Governor seat; knocked off long time progressive champion Russ Feingold, flipped both houses of the state legislature, and knocked off two Democratic incumbent House members.  Then Wisconsin became the epicenter of 2011’s biggest political story, Governor Scott Walker’s efforts to limit the collective bargaining abilities of public sector unions.  A flurry of elections and tens of millions spent on both sides revealed a state that overall is deeply polarized and likely on balance 50/50.  Obama has been running three points ahead of his national average here, but the Democratic Party ID decline is 9.2 points, among the steepest in the nation.  Wisconsin is among the truest swing states at the moment and it seems likely that the winner in 2012 will carry Wisconsin.

Missouri and Indiana look definitively gone from Obama, Ohio is looking likely to go back towards the Republican nominee, Wisconsin and Iowa are among the truest of swing states, Michigan is a few notches more Democratic than average and more open to voting Republican than in the past, and Minnesota remains the most Democratic of the states and the most likely to stay Democratic.

Next time, I will look at the states in the West.

Smart Media Group’s 2012 SXSW Submission

Wednesday, August 24th, 2011

Smart Media Group has submitted a panel for South by Southwest 2012, arguably the largest interactive conference in the world and major wellspring of creative ideas for digital industries today.  Using the SXSW’s “Panel Picker” interface the public can vote on panels they would like to see accepted for the conference.  Please read our submission below and if you like it consider voting for it here: http://panelpicker.sxsw.com/ideas/view/11233

Each election cycle the online advertising and digital services industries see more and more money being spent by political campaigns on their services. By some estimates, $4.55 billion was spent on political advertising in the 2010 election cycle alone. This amount is widely predicted to increase during the 2012 elections cycle which could prove to be a windfall for businesses offering digital services.

One problem facing many digital firms and professionals is the question of how to navigate the turbulent waters of the political pitching process, where a meticulous client, often leery of outsiders can be a prohibitive barrier. The best solution is to offer political clients exactly what they need in language they can understand.

Our presentation is designed to educate a savvy audience of digital professionals who want to learn how to gain political business while avoiding missteps in this tricky field. Many top digital marketers, advertisers, and web-development gurus may not even realize the vast opportunities hidden in each election. We aim to reveal the opportunities, unseen pitfalls and strange stories of the digital political campaign.  Our panel will awnser the following questions:

  1. How can digital professionals and entrepreneurs profit in the political arena?
  2. What are the digital needs of political campaigns?
  3. What are the best practices expected of digital professionals in this field?
  4. What are the common challenges faced by digital consultants in political campaigns?
  5. What opportunities can digital professionals expect in 2012?

Thanks for viewing our submission and hope to see you at SXSW! 

Statewide Political Shifts 2008-2011: Eastern US

Monday, August 15th, 2011

Statewide Political Shifts 2009-2011: Part One

How has the American political landscape changed since the last Presidential election?  It is apparent from the results of the 2010 election that a significant change has occurred.  Going from a banner Democratic year in 2008 to a strong Republican cycle in 2010 is the best evidence of this.  The question now is how these changes in the past two and a half years affect the next election cycle.  By looking at a series of important states, we can get an idea of where the electorate will be in 2012.  First, let’s look at the states on the Eastern seaboard.

How can we figure out these changes?  First, look at the percentage of the vote Obama received in 2008.  Second, determine the two-party Congressional vote in 2010 (this removes all third parties and ensures Democratic and Republican results add up to 100% exactly).  Then, show how many points Obama’s average approval rating for the first six months of 2011 in each state (compiled by Gallup) varies from the national average.  The baseline for this poll is 47 percent, which polled adults (a more Democratic friendly sampling).  Finally, one key variable that can tell how the political landscape has changed since 2008 is the change in party identification.  Gallup also does numbers on party ID every year, and it has changed significantly since 2009.  Every state in America has had a decline in Democratic Party identification (though Democrats still retain an advantage in Party ID overall).

Now let’s look at these states more in depth:

Maine: Maine wasn’t seriously contested in 2008.  Obama won Maine by over 15 points.  However, 2010 was a dramatic change in the statewide political scene.  The GOP won the Governor race and control of both chambers of the legislature.  On two-party Congressional vote, Republicans received 44 percent, a major improvement, but the two Democratic representatives held on to win.  Obama’s approval in Maine is 3 points higher than the national average.  Maine had the third largest Democratic Party ID decline (behind Rhode Island and New Hampshire).   Maine is probably still a blue state, but it is more Republican friendly than in the past decade.

New Hampshire: Obama received 54 percent in New Hampshire.  In 2010, Democratic Governor John Lynch was reelected, but the state legislature has veto proof Republican control.  Senator Kelly Ayotte won her election by almost twenty points.  On two-party Congressional vote, Republicans got 53 percent, good enough to knock off two Democratic incumbents.  Obama’s approval ratings are running 7 points behind his national average, more than in many Deep South safe Republican states.  All of the indicators listed here have been dreadful for Democratic chances in New Hampshire.  All factors considered, New Hampshire experienced the hardest swing away from the Democratic Party of any state in America.  If these trends even stay static, then New Hampshire has to be considered at least a lean Republican state in 2012.

New Jersey: New Jersey also wasn’t seriously contested in 2008.  In 2009, Chris Christie won the Governor’s race, a huge accomplishment considering it was a state that had teased Republicans for years.  On the two-party Congressional vote in 2010, Republicans actually won it by a margin of 51-49 percent (there were no statewide races in 2010).  Obama personally is outperforming these levels, as he is running 7 points ahead of the national average.  In New Jersey, Democratic ID is down 7 points.  As of now, Obama is running a handful of points ahead of where he might be expected to be.  His relative personal popularity keeps it out of the swing state column—for the moment.

Pennsylvania: Obama won Pennsylvania by 10 points, much higher than the small Democratic margins in the Bush years.  Come 2010, the GOP won back the Governorship, an open Senate seat, five House seats, and took control of both houses in the state legislature.  On the two-party Congressional vote, Republicans got 52 percent in Pennsylvania, one point ahead of Pat Toomey, one point behind the national two-party vote and three points less than Governor Tom Corbett.  The Democratic decline is 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.  Obama is one point more popular in Pennsylvania than the national average.  It looks like Pennsylvania has shifted to being one point more Democratic than the national average; the typical Democratic advantage on the Presidential level has been 3 points in the past 50 years.

Virginia: Obama ran at his national popular vote level in Virginia.  In 2009, Republicans easily won the Virginia Governor’s race.  Bob McDonnell was a strong candidate running against a second rate Democrat, but it turned around what appeared to be a state trending blue.  On the two-party Congressional vote, Republicans got 57 percent in Virginia.  Obama’s approval rating is running one point behind his national levels.  Virginia saw a decline of 6 points in Democratic ID in the past two years.  It is becoming increasingly difficult to see how Obama and statewide Democrats can hold onto the state in 2012.

North Carolina: One of Obama’s most audacious and satisfying victories in 2008 was winning North Carolina, a state Democrats hadn’t seriously competed in on the Presidential level for years.  But in 2010, Republicans won control of both chambers of the legislature while a somewhat vulnerable Richard Burr sailed to reelection.  Republicans received 54 percent of the two-party Congressional vote, an artificially low number due to a Democratic drawn Congressional map that will be redrawn by Republicans in time for 2012.  Obama is running one point behind his national average in the state.  It is almost impossible to imagine that Obama can win North Carolina again, a state he won by one point in a great Democratic year.  It will be one of the first 2008 states the campaign writes off.

Florida: Obama won by 3 points in Florida, below his national average.  2010 was a Category 5 wipeout of Democrats.  Republicans held on to the Governor house, strengthened their majorities in both chambers, elected Marco Rubio with 49 percent of the vote in a 3 way race, and won an impressive 62 percent of the two-party Congressional vote.  Obama’s approval rating is at the national average.  No state in America had a bigger swing from the Obama 2008 numbers to the Democratic two-party vote in 2010.  Democratic Party ID declined by 5.5 points and Obama barely won in a good Democratic year.  Florida is best described as a Republican-leaning swing state, most similar to Ohio in behavior.  Obama won’t win Florida unless he is above the margin of error nationally.

Overall, North Carolina and Virginia look almost definitively gone from the Democratic column, Florida and New Hampshire are tentatively leaning Republican, Pennsylvania is almost at the national average–and perhaps tilting GOP, and New Jersey and Maine are on the margins of swing state status, but both have shifted right since 2008.

Next time, I will look at the states in the Midwest.

Groupon Challenges LivingSocial with Ad Buy

Tuesday, August 9th, 2011

When election time approaches campaigns and interest groups often run ads in opponents’ districts or home territory to intimidate staffers, dampen fundraising efforts, influence a candidate’s policy position or to obfuscate their own media strategy.  These types of tactics are employed infrequently outside of the political arena; however, a good example has recently appeared in downtown Washington, DC. 

LivingSocial Inc., founded in Washington, DC in 2007, currently owns or leases office space in Washington’s’ Chinatown and continues to expand there.  The Groupon competitor owns or leases at the following locations:  918 F Street, NW; 829 7th Street, NW; and the newly acquired spot directly across from the Verizon Center at 720 7th Street, NW. 

Groupon seems to have taken notice.  The largest daily deals company recently purchased a $50,000.00 billboard across the street from LivingSocial’s new space on 7th Street.  The Midwestern deals giant may be signaling that they don’t plan to cede the lucrative District of Columbia market. 

Groupon taunts LivingSocial on 7th Street

Consumer Preferences of the Wealthy: Part Three

Tuesday, July 26th, 2011

In the last two posts, I explored the consumer preferences of the wealthy first by looking at what all subgroups had in common, and then by looking at politics and seeing what divides the wealthy on ideological lines.  In this post, I want to look at the differences among the wealthy based on where they live.  I placed the subgroups into either an urban or suburban category.  For urban, I grouped together Manhattan, Northwest DC, Westside LA, North Dallas, and West Houston.  For suburban, I put together Westchester County, Montgomery County (MD), Orange County (CA), and the richest suburban zip codes in Detroit, Nashville, Dallas-Ft. Worth, and Houston.  The differences based on residence may be more interesting than those based on politics.  This information was all gathered using Scarborough Research’s PRIME Lingo consumer data database.

Here are some of the findings:

  • Children: Overall, conservative rich have more children.  However, much of this discrepancy is because the liberal rich are more likely to live in urban areas.  When you drill down to conservative areas like Dallas and Houston, the difference in fertility between urbanites and suburbanites is noticeable.  Their urban areas are generally pretty similar to Manhattan in family profile, while their suburbs are much more child filled.  Even in a liberal suburb like Montgomery County, the family profile looks much more like red suburbs than liberal urban areas, such as their neighbors in Northwest DC.  Family size is more a function of space than ideology.
  • Home ownership: The urban/suburban difference is the dividing line for percentage of those who own their houses.  The most densely populated of the city subgroups, Manhattan and Westside LA, have a nearly 50/50 own/rent split.  Other urban affluent in West Houston and Northwest DC are roughly 75% home owners.  The suburban areas have home ownership rates of at least 85 percent, and usually over 90 percent.  Obviously, there aren’t many homes to own in the heart of Manhattan, while most of the suburban wealthy enclaves are nothing but single family homes.
  • Marriage Rate: There is a pronounced gap between marriage rates in urban and suburban areas.  Suburban areas have high marriage rates, usually greater than the regional average.  Urban areas have lower marriage rates, certainly lower than the typical rate for their area.  What accounts for this gap?  Suburban areas are geared towards families and children.  Those who are wealthy and live in the suburbs are likely to be middle aged and have children.  The suburbs are the living environment that maximizes a family’s standard of living.  Urban wealthy tend to be somewhat older than the suburban wealthy.  There is a greater concentration of empty nesters in the city.
  • Golf: Also following an urban/suburban split pattern is playing golf.  In the case of the New York metro area, wealthy liberals in Westchester County are big on hitting the links.  Their counterparts in Manhattan, who are similar in so many ways, are not regular golfers.  The urban districts of Dallas and Houston are a bit above average in propensity to golf.  That may be because of the more favorable weather in those cities for golfing.
  • Bicycling: Urban wealthy have an average rate of going bicycling.  Suburban wealthy are much more likely than average to bike.  Again, space probably accounts for the difference.  Unless you’re a bicycle messenger, there isn’t much space in Manhattan to go biking.  If you live in the leafy suburbs, particularly in the nice areas, there are likely to be many bike paths to take advantage of.
  • Arts/cultural giving: Donations to arts and cultural institutions comes at a unique intersection of location and ideology.  The most generous donors to the arts are urban liberals.  Urban conservatives give somewhat less but still well above average.  Suburban liberals also give strongly.  In last are suburban conservatives, though their giving is about the regional average.  What we can see here is that urbanites are more likely to give to culture.  This could be because most cultural institutions are based in central cities and not in suburbs.  While there is a difference based off of ideology, the bigger difference is due to location.
  • Religious giving: The results here are interesting.  Urban liberals are less likely than average to give to religious organizations.  Everyone else, including suburban liberals, is more likely to do so.  At a broad level, the rich give strongly to religious institutions and charities.
  • Pets: Despite the stereotype of a single city dweller that lives with a dog or a cat, wealthy suburbanites are more likely to own pets.  In fact, wealthy urbanites are less likely than average to own a pet.  Suburban affluent are more likely than average to be pet owners.  This is likely a function of many apartment buildings not allowing pets or only pets of a certain size.  With large yards, the suburban rich face no such restrictions.

Location is a major variable in figuring out the consumer preferences of the wealthy.  The wealthy are just one small subgroup that we can look at to observe different ways of life depending on the community someone lives in.  Even when we look at people where money isn’t a determining factor in how they live, there are still patterns that will assert themselves due to living conditions.  The size of someone’s yard, the variance between apartments and single family housing, the buildings that tend to be in your neighborhood; all of these are among the most important aspects of how life is lived in America.

Consumer Preferences of the Wealthy: Part Two

Wednesday, July 13th, 2011

In the last post, I explored a series of consumer demographic data points that a wide variety of wealthy subgroups had in common, irrespective of differences in political partisanship or living environment.  Now I want to turn my focus to consumer demographics that divide along ideological grounds.  For this, I grouped together respondents from the wealthiest zip codes in major metropolitan areas.  For liberal wealthy, I have subgroups from Manhattan, Westchester County (NY), Northwest Washington DC, Montgomery County (MD), and Westside Los Angeles.  For the conservative wealthy, I have cohorts from Orange County (CA), separate urban and suburban groupings in Dallas and Houston, and the top zip codes in the Atlanta and Nashville areas.  I also had moderate control groups in Northern Virginia and suburban Detroit.

Among the findings:

  • Personal wealth: Liberal areas generally have more money.  Manhattan and Westchester Counties have the highest percentage of respondents making over $250,000.  Much of this is due to the high cost of living in coastal areas.  The suburban areas of places like Nashville and Dallas do not have quite as much in pure dollar earnings, but once cost of living is factored in; there is likely no difference in standard of living.
  • Education: All sets are well educated.  Liberals are more likely to have received post-graduate degrees.  Over 40% of NY and DC elites received post-graduate degrees.  For rich conservatives, the percentage is in the 20s.  It could be said that rich liberals are those with more education than money and rich conservatives are those with more money than education.
  • Hunting: There is a clear ideological divide.  Rich conservatives go hunting in numbers typical of their neighbors.  Rich liberals almost never hunt, and are less likely to do so than regular income residents of their generally liberal areas.
  • Environment: There are two different types of environmentalism.  One type is based on personal consumption habits.  Whether we are talking about buying eco-friendly cleaning products, buying locally grown food, or recycling, there is no difference among rich conservatives and liberals.  Both are much more likely than average to do such activities.  The difference comes when we talk about environmentalism as a cause.  Wealthy liberals give strongly to environmental groups.  Wealthy conservatives do give more than the regional average, but the regional average for places like Dallas, Houston, and Atlanta are very low to begin with.  Liberals are much more likely to support politicians based on their environmental positions.  This generally isn’t a consideration for conservatives.  The difference here is consumption versus activism.
  • Vehicles: Liberals are somewhat more likely to own a hybrid than conservatives.  Conservative elites are more likely than others surrounding them to have a hybrid, but their ownership rates are nothing out of the ordinary.  On the other hand, conservatives are more likely to own motorcycles, while liberals generally eschew them.
  • College football: There is a marked difference between liberals and conservatives in regards to interest in college football.  Of the liberal subgroups, only Westside LA (home of UCLA) has an interest level approaching average.  The conservative elites are big fans of Saturday football.  This was one of the starkest differences I found.
  • Soccer: Liberals express an interest in European soccer many times greater than the general population.  Conservatives do not, and their interest in soccer isn’t much different from the typical resident of their area.
  • High school sports: Affluent conservatives are more into high school sports.  It is worth pointing out that conservative elites aren’t the diehards that some others around them are.  Wealthy liberals generally aren’t interested in following high school sports.
  • Special TV programs: Liberals are more likely to watch Academy Awards, while conservatives have above average viewing of country music awards shows.  Conservatives were at average rates for viewing beauty pageants, liberals do not watch them.  Liberals were especially likely to watch the Kennedy Center Honors and the Tony Awards.
  • Public radio/TV: Rich liberals are the lifeblood of public radio and TV.  They are the best givers in the nation.  Conservatives are more likely than their neighbors to give to public broadcasting, but their levels of support do not compare to their liberal counterparts.
  • Grocery stores: Whole Foods is beloved by liberals.  Conservatives do shop there disproportionately as well, but not to the same degree.  Conservatives are more likely to go to the same big grocery stores that everyone else goes to, such as Kroger, Publix, and Costco.
  • Cable news: It is no surprise that Fox News is more popular among conservatives.  What is more interesting is that MSNBC barely beats out Fox News even in liberal enclaves.  The liberal elite actually prefer CNN as a viewing choice.  One caveat is that this measures whether a channel was viewed in the past seven days, not something like length of time that stationed was watched.

Next time, I will explore the differences between urban and suburban wealthy.

Common Consumer Preferences of the Wealthy

Tuesday, June 28th, 2011

We often talk about the rich, watch the rich on TV, and even try to imitate them. But how well do we know what they like (and dislike)? To find out, I went through Scarborough Research’s PRIME Lingo database, an immense collection of consumer research data. To find suitable collections of wealthy persons, I grouped adults age 35 and over together from the richest zip codes in the New York, Washington, Los Angeles, Detroit, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Nashville areas. The zip codes collected are a balance of urban and suburban locations, and also balanced politically. These themes will be explored in future posts.

It is nothing new to report that the affluent like to drive Lexuses and Jaguars. What I will do is report some findings that are not immediately obvious. Some of the findings will not be surprising, but others will be somewhat at odds with the perception of who the rich are.

Some similarities among all the subgroups:

Gambling: The rich generally do not gamble. They have low rates of playing slot machines, table games, watching casino shows, and frequenting casino bars. The only casino activity where they resemble the general population is attending an upscale restaurant attached to a casino, a standard of newly built casinos. The high rollers table may make for good James Bond movie settings, but that runs against the typical pattern of who frequents casinos.

Hotels: The hotel chains the affluent like the most are Marriott, Courtyard by Marriott, Hilton, Embassy Suites, and surprisingly, Hampton Inns. Hampton Inns are an odd choice considering they are limited service hotels that cater to travelers on a budget. The category leader in the field is Holiday Inn, and while the rich are less likely than average to stay in one, it is still the most common hotel chain for them to check into. The rich sometimes aren’t so different from the masses.

Soft drinks: Soft drinks are another common facet of American life that aren’t popular among the wealthy. This is likely because they are older and soft drinks are more likely to be consumed by children and teenagers. There are regional exceptions such as Coke being very popular in Atlanta, and Dr. Pepper being widespread in the Dallas area. Both beverages are headquartered in the immediate areas, and conceivably the executives at Coca-Cola and Dr. Pepper could be part of these subgroups. If any soft drinks are popular, they are caffeine free beverages.

Alcohol: Among all Americans nationally, more name beer as their alcoholic beverage of choice than wine. Among all of our subgroups, wine is more popular than beer, sometimes much more so. Their second choice is beer and the third choice is liquor. Their propensity to name beer as their first choice is less than average and their preference for liquor is above average.

Credit cards: You would think the wealthy would have less need for credit cards. You would be wrong. The wealthy across the board are more likely to use credit cards, in almost every case including traditional big name brands, gasoline credit cards, and department store credit cards. It would seem intuitive that the rich could pay for more out of pocket, but the convenience (and safety) of paying without cash has appeal with the rich.

NASCAR: To be blunt, the rich shun NASCAR. In many of the northeastern locations, the amount who expresses even slight interest is only around 5-10 percent. It might be expected that rich Manhattanites aren’t fans of stock car racing, but even the elite in some of NASCAR’s hotbeds are not very interested. There are more fans in Nashville, Atlanta, and Texas than the northern cohorts, but they are among the least interested fans in their areas. There could very well be a class-based judgment against NASCAR.

Branded sports apparel: Sporting merchandise such as jerseys, t-shirts, and athletic paraphernalia are less likely to be worn by the rich. This is true of all the major sports leagues. The one exception is college sports gear. Here, the affluent are more likely than average to own apparel. It may be the case that they buy a shirt to root on their alma mater come college football or hoops season, but they won’t wear jerseys of the local pro teams.

Satellite radio: All of the subgroups are much more likely to listen to satellite radio. Depending on the subgroup, anywhere between one fifth and one third of respondents listened to satellite radio in the past week. The general population total averages around 10 percent.

Cable channels: The relevant point here is that the rich are less likely to watch TV. All subgroups were more likely to watch business channels like CNBC. There is a wide preference for watching cable news. Turner Classic Movies and National Geographic Channel are disproportionately popular in most (but not all) markets. Otherwise, nearly every other channel scores lower with the rich than with their fellow viewers. Perhaps being a couch potato is incompatible with being wealthy.

Online activity: If the rich aren’t watching TV, perhaps they decided to shift their leisure time online. The wealthy are more likely to use most common internet functions. Across the board, the wealthy are more likely to do such activities as using online auction sites, read blogs, play fantasy sports, pay their bills, and even use online dating sites. The only sorts of activities they are less likely to do are online gambling, look for jobs, and play video games.

These are some of the characteristics that are broadly similar among differing classes of the wealthy. In future posts, I will explore differences based on political affiliation and the urban/suburban divide.

Philo TV: A Marriage of Traditional and Social Media

Monday, June 27th, 2011

Now sitting in front of the TV screen at home can be a social experience.  Philo TV is an application for mobile devices used to browse television shows airing on broadcast stations and cable networks and is used to “check-in” to a television show being watched by the user. The application provides information including episode specific details, air time, genre and premise.

Popularity of certain TV shows increases quickly within social circles because Philo allows users to share with others what they are watching. Users report how much and why they do or do not like each episode by “checking-in”. You can view only your friends’ opinions or the entire Philo community. Philo TV begins to interpret user’s TV preferences and will recommend shows based on prior ratings. Couch potatoes now have the option to share what show they are watching on Facebook and Twitter.

Users earn points each time they “check-in” and comment on shows.  Like Foursquare, Philo TV has a “leaderboard” displaying users’ points. Points are broken up by show creating a competition to be the number one fan, or “executive producer” of a certain series. Specific series chat rooms are available to allow groups to have live conversation about favorite shows.

To promote shows networks can give awards, similar to badges on Foursquare. (See prior blog post here.) For example TV Insider awards a badge for watching a show they recommended. Philo TV has the unique promotion of giving users the chance to win prizes for watching their favorite shows. For instance, someone could win a trip to the Super Bowl for watching NFL Football. These options are for debuting series, those on air for decades and everyone in between, making it easy to tie your network or show to a promotion.

The Future of Foursquare

Wednesday, June 1st, 2011

Foursquare, a location-based social networking site predominantly used as a mobile application, allows users to “check-in” on smartphones when visiting a location.  When checking-in users are notified of friends nearby. Foursquare users may opt to share their location with friends on other social networking sites, such as Twitter and Facebook. 

A venue can be created by any Foursquare user, but employees of a particular business must claim the venue on Foursquare. Once claimed, businesses are able to manage “campaigns”, or promotions, to encourage users to visit their business. An example being, “get a free appetizer every fifth check-in.”

The title of “mayor” is achieved through consistent check-ins at the same venue. Mayorship is earned by the person with the most check-ins within the last 60 days at a single venue. The bragging rights combined with enhanced promotions for mayors promote customer loyalty. Varieties of badges exist on Foursquare and are obtained in unique ways. For example the “JetSetter” badge is earned by having five airport check-ins. With the launch of Foursquare 3.0 in March 2011, users are able to search businesses around them by category or keywords to find a business meeting their needs. For instance, there are the preselected categories of “nightlife” and “coffee”, but users can also search for something as specific as “latkas” or “disco music”.

Aside from the fact users see other venues near where they check-in, not much else was available on Foursquare to benefit businesses outside of the retail sector. Businesses not tied to a particular location can now choose from two Foursquare marketing tools—pages and custom badges—to connect with users. Pages show tips about nearby locations fitting into a particular business’s brand. For instance, Bravo TV shows tips of businesses left by cast members of their Real Housewives series. Partner badges are created as a reward for users who check-in somewhere seen as fitting into a business’s brand. An example is the CNN Healthy Eater badge given to users who checked into farmers’ markets. If you’re interested in creating a partner badge do so here.

These two options are just the beginning ways brands will be able to promote themselves on Foursquare. With over 10 million users, more localized advertising options are sure to surface, so stay tuned. Oh and if you ever stop by Smart Media Group, make sure to check-in!

The Problem of Large TV Markets in Advertising

Wednesday, June 1st, 2011

A Designated Market Area (DMA) is a technical term for what most people commonly refer to as a TV market.  Broadcast networks typically have an affiliate in each DMA.  Currently there are 210 DMAs in the United States.  Every county in the US is part of a DMA, no matter how close or far you live to your local network affiliate.

Because every county is part of a DMA, some can be very large and full of rural counties many miles away from the center of the market.  Let us take the example of the Dallas-Fort Worth DMA, the 5th largest in the country.  Over 7 million people live in the DMA, which includes over 2.5 million TV households.

The size and sprawl of the DFW DMA is enormous.  Dallas TV stations reach 32 counties in Northeast Texas.  The size of the DMA is over 26,000 square miles, which is larger than the state of West Virginia.  Traveling from Downtown Dallas to some of the counties on the edge of the viewing area can be quite a trek.  The distance from Downtown Dallas to Comanche, the county seat of Comanche County, is approximately 120 miles.  Traveling by car, it is somewhere near 140 miles away.  On the other end of the DMA is Red River County.  Its county seat, Clarksville, is 115 miles northeast of Downtown Dallas.  Even if you push the limits on the back roads, it will take over two hours to go from Dallas to these locales.  It’s safe to say no one in Clarksville or Comanche is commuting into Dallas every day.  And yet, they are equally part of the TV market as the city of Dallas.

The Census Bureau defines the Dallas-Ft. Worth Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) as only 12 counties.

Even so, this 12 county region is nearly the size of Maryland.  This more restrictive definition of the metro area still includes some totally rural counties such as Delta, Hunt, and Wise Counties.  In reality, there are only a handful of counties with true urbanization.  Nearly all of Dallas County is developed.  Most of Tarrant County (Ft. Worth), except for the southern and western fringes, is developed.  The northern suburban counties of Collin and Denton have some parts closest to the big cities developed, but even the majority of their land remains rural.  Finally, the edges of Rockwall, Johnson, and Ellis Counties have seen some recent development.  Everything else in the region is rural and small town.

This creates some issues in advertising.  In a huge DMA like Dallas-Ft. Worth, any advertising that doesn’t have a reach in the whole market will see significant waste of resources.  Local businesses and non-statewide political candidates would be targeting only a fraction of a very expensive market.

Additionally, there is a sizable amount of socioeconomic diversity within the viewing area.  Residents of the super wealthy Park Cities enclave (Highland Park, University Park) are much more likely to read out of town newspapers, attend high culture events (ballet, symphony), drives Porsches and Lexuses, drink cocktails or wine, and go to Whole Foods.

Suburbanites out in Collin County have disproportionately large families, heavily frequent amusement parks, like to buy sporting goods, and listen extensively to childrens and Christian radio stations.

Comanche and Red River Counties, in contrast, are much less affluent.  They are much more likely to hunt, gamble, drive cars from the Big Three domestic auto makers, drink domestic beers, and support country music.  These are just three of numerous segments of consumers that advertisers will reach on broadcast TV.  Many times, it won’t make sense to target all of these segments.

So how do you avoid waste in delivering your message?  One way is to use cable.  Cable advertising is done through local cable systems, which have a far smaller geographic sweep.  For example, the Park Cities have their own cable system, Time-Warner Park Cities.  This is a small cable system that can be specifically targeted at this viewer base.  Similarly, Red River County also has its own cable system, Suddenlink Clarksville.  Collin County has a few different overlapping cable providers such as Time Warner and Viamedia spread out on a few different systems apiece.  Through a judicious use of cable, you can target customers in a much more efficient manner.

Some rural areas do not have cable at all.  If you are still interested in targeting consumers in outlying areas of a DMA, you can explore non-metro radio.  Unlike TV, not every county is part of a radio market.  The Dallas-Ft. Worth radio market is only 11 counties, meaning that the majority of remaining counties are non-metro radio.  There are state radio networks that specialize in placing spots on rural radio stations, saving buyers the trouble of searching through the multitude of small town stations.

Broadcast advertising remains the most popular medium for advertising due to its extensive reach.  In many circumstances, broadcast TV is too expensive and too widely diffused for anything but a buy from a national advertiser.  Exploring other options such as cable or radio can be a much more effective method for selling a product or candidate.