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The Ins and Outs of Spanish Language Media

Wednesday, November 30th, 2011

A significant minority of the Hispanic community uses Spanish language media.  Spanish language media is no longer confined to cities close to the Mexican border; there are now affiliates of Spanish broadcasters in such middle American cities as Wichita and Kansas City.  Thirty-five percent of respondents to the Univision Latino Votes Survey took the survey in Spanish.  Of the three in the middle political groups surveyed (Democratic Leaners, Swing, and Republican Leaners), 30% are Spanish dominant (meaning those whose majority of television consumption is in Spanish).

Who consumes Spanish language media: Spanish language consumption is heavily determined by education level.  Of the 40 percent of all respondents with a High School diploma or less, 44% are Spanish dominant.  But only 12 percent of those with some college and 11 percent of college graduates are Spanish dominant.  Once a respondent steps foot on a college campus, their likelihood of viewing Spanish language television falls by 73 percent.

Republicans are less likely to consume Spanish media.  Twenty percent of Republicans are Spanish dominant.  This is less than for either Democrats or Independents, both of whose level of Spanish dominant individuals is 28-29%.  In spite of that, self-identified conservatives are more likely to be Spanish dominant.  Thirty-two percent of self-described conservatives are Spanish dominant, compared to 25% of moderates, and 20% of liberals.  Clearly, there is some room for improvement for Republicans among the Spanish language audience. 

Women are more likely to watch Spanish language media.  Thirty percent report being Spanish dominant.  That is somewhat larger than the 22 percent of men who are Spanish dominant. The geographic subsample group most likely to be Spanish dominant was those who were from Florida.

The small proportion of Protestants is much less likely to watch Spanish language television than their Catholic counterparts.  Only 18 percent of Protestants are Spanish dominant, compared to 31 percent of Catholics.  Self described “Observant Catholics” (30 percent of all respondents) are much more Spanish dominant (38%) than self described “Non-Observant Catholics” (34 percent of all respondents), of whom only 25 percent are Spanish dominant.  If Republicans are interested in targeting the Hispanics who are socially conservative, then Spanish language TV has to be part of that strategy.

Effects on political attitudes: As media consumption becomes more English-heavy, support for immigration restriction increases.  Eleven percent of Spanish only viewers support making it harder for immigrants to come to US, compared to 15% for Spanish majority viewers, 24% for English majority viewers, and 28% for English only viewers.

Twenty-three percent of Spanish only viewers consider immigration their top issue, compared to 17 percent of Spanish majority viewers, 8 percent of English majority viewers, and a mere 4 percent of English only viewers.  This could indicate that the Spanish language media is heavily fixated on immigration issues.  The precise opposite occurs with social issues.  Only 8 percent of Spanish only respondents named social issues their top priority.  This increases to 10% of Spanish majority viewers, 15% of English majority viewers, and 16% of English only viewers.  It could also be the case that Spanish language media does not cover culture war issues to the extent that Anglo outlets do.

Effects on political partisanship: When asked about how committed Democrats were to immigration reform, the amount who answered “committed” stayed between 41-42 percent regardless of how much or little Spanish language media consumed.  What did change noticeably was the amount who thought Democrats were exploiting the immigration issue to win votes.  Thirty-nine percent of Spanish only voters believed this, compared to 45 percent of Spanish majority viewers, 49 percent of English majority viewers, and 50 percent of English only viewers.  Increasing exposure to English language media correlates with less trust in the Democratic Party.

Republican Base voters stand out in their distance from Spanish language media.  The other four voter segments (including Republican Leaners) have somewhere between 26-33% of respondents who are Spanish language dominant.  Republican Base voters are only nine percent Spanish dominant.  A microscopic one percent of Republican Base voters are Spanish only viewers.  They are the one voting segment that is out of reach of Spanish language media.

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Can Republicans win the Hispanic vote?

Thursday, November 17th, 2011

On Immigration, tone may trump substance

Coverage of Hispanic politics in the Anglo media often creates the impression that the dominant political issue among Spanish-speaking Americans is immigration. If you see a Latino face on TV arguing about politics, most likely he was invited on to talk about immigration. The media’s focus influences strategists from both political parties who routinely view the key to winning Hispanic voters as championing some form of immigration reform. But is immigration really the main issue of concern for Hispanics?

Not by a long shot. The No.1 issue that Hispanic voters care about is education. That’s according to an extensive poll of likely Hispanic voters conducted by the Tarrance Group and the Mellman Group for Univision. The findings of the Univision Latino Voters Survey suggest that Republicans do have an image problem among most Hispanic voters, but it is not a crushing deficit and there is room for improvement.

Democrats, meanwhile, are more trusted overall, although they are far from beloved. In many respects, the immigration issue is a proxy for “respecting the Hispanic community.” If there are image problems for Republicans among Hispanics, it has more to do with a perceived lack of respect than the details of an immigration policy. Moreover, Republican politicians could make inroads with Hispanic voters if they indicate that they respect the community, and refrain from demonizing immigrants.

In the fall survey, which drew 1,500 participants from California, Texas, Florida, and the Southwest, the top-rated concern among all respondents was “our kids are not getting the quality education they need.”  The education issue reached across ideological boundaries — 36 percent of Republicans, 36 percent of Democrats and 37 percent of swing voters named it as a top concern.

Immigration wasn’t even second on the list of concerns — two spending issues ranked below education. The second-rated concern: cuts to Medicare, which was a top concern for 35 percent of respondents.  At the same time, respondents were also concerned about government spending. A third named it as a top concern.

Government spending – an issue where the GOP traditionally holds an edge — was even more a concern among Hispanic swing voters. Forty-two percent named it as a top concern, and the numbers were even higher among respondents from Texas and the Southwest – areas where Republicans picked up House seats in 2010.

The other issue that consistently ranked near the top was jobs — 33 percent of respondents ranked it as one of their top concerns. Everyone is concerned with having good jobs, but this is particularly a concern in the Southwest, where 39 percent of swing voters expressed concern over finding employment.

So which party has the edge with Hispanic voters going into 2012? Some observers believe the GOP could make inroads next year, in part, because Hispanics are assumed to be socially conservative and therefore naturally Republican. If the GOP favored immigration reform, the conventional wisdom goes, Hispanics would vote Republican en masse.

Here too the conventional wisdom is flawed.  The 5th ranked concern among all surveyed was “family values are in decline.”  While this would sound like evidence of innate social conservatism, it’s a rather vague statement.  Who’s for weakening families after all?  A more concrete issue, “there are too many abortions in the US,” ranks 17th out of 21 issues, with 17 percent rating it as a concern. Meanwhile, government recognition of gay marriages ranked near the bottom, with only 15 percent ranking it as a concern.  These are clearly not the prime motivators of Hispanic voting behavior.

One issue that Hispanics in the aggregate give the edge to Republicans on is national security. Swing voters also give Republicans the edge on abortion and keeping down government spending. Issues related to immigration and “respecting the Hispanic community” is where Hispanics give Democrats the widest advantage over Republicans.

In total, 21 issues were provided to respondents in this survey, five of which relate to immigration. The top immigration-related concern among all voters connects to the recent crackdowns in some GOP-led states. “More states are passing anti-Latino immigration laws like Arizona’s,” ranked 10th.  That’s right, 10th.  The other four came in at 14th, 15th, 16th and 19th.  And one of these concerns was “illegal immigration is out of control,” which 17 percent said was one of their top concerns. Swing voters showed even less interest in immigration issues.

A version of this blog post was published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider

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$5.8 Million Spent in VA State Senate Elections

Tuesday, November 8th, 2011

Both parties in Virginia have poured millions of dollars into television and radio advertising in the fight to control the state Senate, but some of that cash may have been wasted because of the structure of the Commonwealth’s legislative districts.

State senate candidates and committees from both parties have spent a grand total of $5.8 million in Virginia on broadcast, cable and radio advertising. Republicans hold the edge, having spent $3 million on advertising compared to $2.7 million for Democrats.

Democrats currently hold a four-seat majority in the state Senate, but their grip on power is tenuous given Virginia’s political climate. Moreover, they’ve had to defend districts where in past cycles the GOP didn’t even field a candidate. This year, the battle to control the state Senate been fought primarily in thirteen districts, which have been blanketed with ads.

Unfortunately for the candidates, the Virginia Legislature paid no attention to the geography of media markets when it drew up the legislative districts. The result is uniquely shaped boundaries that can spill-in and spill-out of several media markets at a time, making it difficult to efficiently reach the right voters through mass media.

Take the Roanoke media market, where candidates and issue groups together have spent $1.9 million. The map below illustrates how districts 20, 21, 22 and 38 spill-in and spill-out of the city’s TV market. In the case of districts 38 and 22, only voters from certain counties fall into the Roanoke market. Other voters who reside outside of the market are not exposed to the campaigns’ Roanoke advertising at all.

In districts where there is significant market spill-in and spill-out, campaigns must determine if a worthwhile percentage of their targeted voters will actually receive exposure to their broadcast ads.

For example, district 38 falls into three broadcast markets: Bluefield-Beckley, Roanoke and Tri-Cities. As the state’s biggest spender, state Sen. Phillip Puckett (D) — who didn’t face an opponent in 2007 — has placed over a half a million dollars on ads in these markets on broadcast and cable. Puckett has placed $545,000 on broadcast in all three markets and $26,000 on cable in Bluefield-Beckley only.

Adam Light, Puckett’s Republican challenger, has spent over $380,000 on advertising in Bluefield-Beckley, Roanoke and Tri-Cities. Light has placed $323,000 on broadcast, $53,000 on cable and $7,000 on radio. He has received additional $38,000 in advertising support from the Republican Party of Virginia on cable and radio.

This map shows district 38 and the counties that fall into each broadcast TV market.

To put this spending into context, here is a map of the district and each TV market to their full extent.

Despite his massive outlay, Puckett is in danger of losing his seat after 13 years in office. If he’s defeated on Tuesday, questions should be asked about the effectiveness of his advertising strategy.

As an alternative to the large scope of broadcast, advertising on cable TV allows candidates to more precisely target the voters within their districts. Instead of blanketing a whole media market with advertisements, campaigns can pick and choose which cable systems cover their district. The drawback to advertising on cable, however, is that the audience is a lot smaller.

Total Spend by District
At least thirteen state senate districts have been blanketed with ads: VA SD-01, VA SD-06, VA SD-09, VA SD-17, VA SD-20, VA SD-21, VA SD-22, VA SD-29, VA SD-36, VA SD-37, VA SD-38, VA SD-39 and VA SD-40.

Total Spend by Candidate

Total Spend by Market
Where in Virginia have these campaign dollars been spent? Candidates and issue groups together have spent $1.9 million in Roanoke, $1.6 million in Washington, DC, $890k in Norfolk, $498k in Tri-Cities, $413k in Richmond, $377k in Charlottesville and $135k in Bluefield-Beckley.

A version of this blog post was published on Campaigns and Elections blog, Campaign Insider

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Univision Latino Voters Survey: The Hispanic Electorate

Thursday, October 27th, 2011

This month, Univision commissioned what may be the most in depth survey of Hispanic political opinion ever.  Conducted by Republican pollsters The Tarrance Group and Democratic firm The Mellman Group, the survey asked 1500 likely Latino voters an extensive series of questions about their political beliefs and media consumption.  There are also 300 respondent subgroups for California, Texas, Florida, and the Southwest (Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico).  Because Hispanics nationally are about 9-10% of the electorate, a standard national opinion poll will have under 100 Hispanic respondents.  With such a small pool of respondents, the margin of error for Hispanic data is very high.  With this survey, we now have the chance to go deeper and truly examine the Hispanic population on a large variety of questions.

In this segment, I want to examine the survey’s modeling of the Hispanic electorate.  For all the attention the political community has paid to Hispanic voters, there has been few attempts to determine which parts of the Latino community are loyal to either party, and more importantly, which characteristics are associated with such voters.  The Univision survey broke respondents down into five segments: Democratic base, Democratic sympathizers, Swing, Republican sympathizers, and Republican base.  For these segments, I will provide the proportion of Hispanic voters which belong to the grouping, the breakdown of ideology for respondents (liberal, moderate, and conservative), a few of the characteristics for each group, and a fictional representative member of this voting segment.

Democratic base: 38% of electorate, 53% liberal, 20% moderate, 27% conservative

More likely to be in Northeast, union member, non-religious, 60+ years old, not married

Sample voter: Gloria, 62 yrs old, Bronx, NY

Gloria was a young girl when she and her family migrated to New York from Puerto Rico.  She is widowed and has two adult children.   She worked a variety of service jobs in her life, rising to be a team manager for her company.  She is involved in her union, which is a SEIU local.  Except for wedding and funerals, she hasn’t gone to church since she was a teenager.  Her first political inspiration was John F. Kennedy and has been a loyal and active Democrat for her entire adult lifetime.

Democratic sympathizers: 24% of electorate, 36% liberal, 26% moderate, 38% conservative

More likely to be in their 30s, 1st generation, young women, under $35k, unemployed, and from California

Sample voter: Maria, 32 years old, Los Angeles, CA

Maria was born in Mexico, coming to America as a teenager.  She became a citizen five years ago.  She is a mother with two young children.  To support her family, she works as a maid.   She tries to make it to church when she can, but she often misses because she is working.  She voted for both Obama and Jerry Brown.  Virtually all of her neighbors are Democrats, and that’s how she typically casts her ballot.

Swing: 16% of electorate, 29% liberal, 23% moderate, 48% conservative

More likely to be young men, from Texas, under 30 years old, under 50 years old, non college graduate, goes to church a few times a month

Sample voter: Adrian, 24 yrs old, San Antonio, TX

Adrian is a 1st generation Mexican-American.  After getting some work experience in the construction industry, he has found a job in the Public Works department for the San Antonio city government.  He will sometimes go to church when his mother badgers him into going. While not particularly into politics, he is proud to be the first in his family to vote and cast his first presidential ballot for Barack Obama in 2008.  However, in 2010, he voted for Rick Perry for governor.

GOP sympathizers: 12% of electorate, 19% liberal, 16% moderate, 65% conservative

More likely to be Protestants, gun owners, from Florida, under 30, home owners, some college

Sample voter: Miguel, 29 years old, Orlando, FL,

Miguel is a 2nd generation American.  He is of mixed Cuban-Puerto Rican heritage.  He went to a local community college, where he focused on computer sciences.  He has an IT job, and wants to go back to school to get his degree soon.  He is a gun owner, and he and some of his friends enjoy going to the shooting range.  After being indifferent to religion most of his life, he joined a Pentecostal church three years ago.  He met his fiancée at church and is in the process of looking for a house for them.  His father is a Republican and his mother is a Democrat.  He has cast most of his votes for Republican candidates.  He voted for John McCain in 2008 and for Marco Rubio in 2010.  He may vote for a Democrat on occasion, like when he voted for Bill Graham in 2006.

GOP base: 9% of electorate, 9% liberal, 6% moderate, 85% conservative

More likely to be Protestants, gun owners, college graduates, above $75k, in their 50s, male, weekly church attenders.

Sample voter: Ricardo, 56 years old, Westchester, FL

Ricardo left Cuba when he was five years old.  He grew up in Little Havana, and attended Florida International University where he studied business.  After 30 years of experience, he is a bank executive who works in Downtown Miami.  He is particularly proud that two of his children are recent graduates from the University of Miami.  He and his wife go to church every week and are involved in their parish.  He cast first presidential vote for Reagan in 1980, and has voted straight ticket Republican ever since.  He was an early donor to Marco Rubio’s Senate campaign.

What is interesting about these fictional voters is how similar they are to those of all races and backgrounds with their characteristics.  Union members in New York who never go to church are Democrats, period.  Upper middle class bankers who go to church every week are Republicans, regardless if your heritage is Latino or WASP.   If Hispanics are more Democratic, that’s because more Hispanics are currently in a position to be Democrats.

Next time, I will look at what issues Latino voters care about.

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Secret to Success This Electoral Cycle: Money, Data, Adaptability — and a Narrative

Wednesday, October 5th, 2011

From Advertising Age, 10/4/2011

http://adage.com/article/special-report-advertising-week/election-12-narrative-data-bad-twitter-behavior/230209/

Advertising Week Panel Predict Billions Spent on Niche-Targeted Micro-Campaigns; Twitter as Negative Campaign Tool

By Ken Wheaton

With the 2012 electoral cycle already well underway, campaign managers overwhelmed by a wealth of new media options, thousands of bytes of data, billions of dollars in advertising spending and multiple third-party players should remember this: “Story telling in political advertising is more important than ever.”

That was Catherine “Kiki” McLean, senior partner, global head of public affairs and managing director for Porter Novelli Public Services, at an afternoon Advertising Week panel discussion about political advertising. Ms. McLean, who worked on Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign, joined Purple Strategies’ Rob Collins, Smart Media Group’s Kyle Roberts, ASGK Public Strategies’ Eric Sedler and Time Warner Cable Media President Joan Hogan Gillman.

The panel kicked off not with an obsession over what Facebook will mean for the candidates or how Twitter will change everything, but rather with four old-fashioned TV ads, chosen by panel members based on their strengths and, in one case, its weakness. The unfortunate ad was for Maryland gubernatorial candidate Bob Ehrlich, who lost his last try for office.

The problem, said Ms. McLean, wasn’t the tone or even the message, but that the ad “told you nothing about what it would be like” if Mr. Ehrlich won the election. The other three ads — one of which was not a political ad, but an Allstate ad about the recession – ranged from humorous to serious but all had clear narrative voices.

Of course, having great ads will be just one part of an increasingly complex equation. The number of candidates might not be any higher than in previous years, but the number of groups — from candidate’s campaigns to political party committees to SuperPACs — spending money will be up dramatically. While the national media will be caught up in a presidential contest likely to approach $3 billion, Smart Media’s Mr. Roberts pointed out that in 2010 one congressional contest in Roanoke, Va., saw $8 million in outside money. That’s only expected to increase this time around.

Note to media companies, Mr. Roberts said only half-jokingly: “We need a lot more inventory.”

Time Warner’s Ms. Gillman, who has a background in politics, was quick to point out that Time Warner, which happened to sponsor the panel discussion, was in a position to help candidates (as are, one assumes, other cable providers). But cable companies, she added, have had to adapt with the times. Political campaigns are now optimizing their messaging in close to real time and local cable providers have no choice but to be able to put an ad up — or take it down — within a 24-hour time frame.

She also raised the point of data mining and niche targeting, which cable providers, as well as various online outlets, now make available to candidates.

Mr. Sedler, who founded ASGK Public Strategies with top Obama campaign advisor David Axerod, picked up on the data theme. “There is so much data … you’re going to see dozens and dozens of micro campaigns underneath macro campaigns.” He envisioned, for this cycle, “hundreds of campaigns that will be visible only to niche audiences.”

That, of course, is where online and mobile come in — banner ads, YouTube videos, candidate web pages, blogger outreach. And social media?

The panelists spent little time discussing the flavor of the last three years until asked to do so by an audience member. Those spending hours and hours of time on Twitter and Facebook might be forgiven for thinking that large percentages of the billions to be spent will be funneled that way, but the seasoned political consultants see the platforms as an efficient way to, well, preach to the choir and keep the believers engaged.

“Smart campaigns are going to spend significant resources to build a social-media voice” prior to and during next summer, said Purple Strategies’ Mr. Collins. After all, “picking up a Facebook friend on Oct. 31 is not the best use of that platform.” (Mr. Collins, noting the possibility of ad oversaturation and voter exhaustion, emphasized the need for campaigns to distinguish themselves early in the cycle. “Before Labor Day, spending can move numbers,” he said. “After Labor Day, it just locks in numbers.”)

Mr. Sedler noted that the best use of Facebook is as a “mobilization platform not a persuasion platform.” Though he did note that it’s changed dramatically since 2008 now that, theoretically at least, 50% of voters can be reached through the platform.

Perhaps his most interesting comment was made about Twitter. Seen typically as a conversational medium and portrayed as something that’s done good (Haiti and Tsunami relief efforts, Democracy movements), it’s also been a quick way to spread gossip and, from time to time, false information.

Mr. Sedler seemed to think political operatives might be unable to resist the dark side of the medium. “Twitter was a non-actor in 2008,” he said, but “my sense is you’ll see a lot of negative stuff put out via Twitter.”

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Swing State Analysis: Part Two

Tuesday, October 4th, 2011

In the first installment of this analysis, I went through the competitive states that are Republican leaning.  If Republicans were able to hold all of those states, then their candidate would reach 270 electoral votes precisely.  But considering that few things in life are that simple, Republicans have to target many more states.  In this part, I look at the states that are genuinely in the middle of the political balance and states that lean somewhat Democratic.  These also will be competitive states in 2012.

50/50 states: These are the states that track almost exactly with the national popular vote.  They can swing by a larger margin than the candidate’s victory, but whoever wins in 2012 will likely have these three states in their corner.

Iowa: In 2004, Bush won Iowa by a hair, running about one point behind his national popular vote average.  In 2008, Obama ran one point ahead of his national popular vote average.  Based on all this, you would conclude that Iowa is a point more Democratic than the national average.  However, events since 2008 have swung the state to the right.  On the statewide level, Charles Grassley waltzed to reelection, while Terry Branstad won the Governor’s race by nearly twenty points.  There has been a Democratic Party identification decline of nine points, one of the highest totals in the country.  There has also been a major turnaround in party registration, as a strong Democratic registration advantage has almost disappeared.  This is a state that is as close to being in the middle as there is in America.

Colorado: You could make a persuasive case that Colorado is a few years behind Virginia’s political arc.  They are both formerly solid Republican states that voted for Bob Dole.  They gave increasingly narrow margins to Bush from 2000 to 2004.  A new breed of relatively moderate, business-friendly Democrats came to power.  An influx of immigrants changed the demography of their states.  The state Republican Party is mismanaged and poor candidates challenge a new iteration of Democrats.  Political observers start calling it a purple, or even a blue state, and it is held up as an example of a growing progressive movement.  This arc ran in Virginia from 2001 to 2009, before this narrative was smashed by the transformative Bob McDonnell campaign.  The arc in Colorado began in roughly 2004-2005, and has yet to end, but 2012 may be just about when it runs out of gas.

Nevada: There are many similarities between Nevada and Colorado’s political cultures.  They have generally moved in tandem in recent years.  Nevada was also a disappointing state for Republicans in 2010.  It is also frequently mentioned as a state that is trending Democrat because of changing demographics.  The Reid/Angle Senate race received extensive national attention, but the other major statewide race that year saw Republican Brian Sandoval easily defeat Harry Reid’s son for the Governorship.  The split decision in 2010 is representative of Nevada’s swing state status.  Its Two-Party Congressional vote was almost exactly a mirror of the House popular vote.  Obama has also been below average here in the polls.  It could be likened to a smaller scale Colorado.

Democrat leaning swing states: These are four states that Obama won rather easily in 2008, but all elected Republican Governors and Senators in 2010.  These states are instinctively viewed as blue states, but in some cases, they may be only a point or two more Democratic than average.

Wisconsin: No state has given us more relevant political data in 2011.  The Supreme Court election between David Prosser and Joanne Kloppenburg and the whole recall process demonstrated a state that is sharply divided, and just about 50/50 overall.  Republicans were able to squeak out narrow victories in both rounds of the fight over Governor Walker’s Budget Repair Bill.  The most accurate way to characterize the state is still Democratic leaning swing state because of the high level of popularity that Obama enjoyed in 2008 (Winning the Wisconsin Primary was a key landmark in his primary victory and he got a higher percentage of the general election vote here than in Minnesota) and Obama is still three points above his national approval rating average.  Labeling it Democratic leaning only means it is more Democratic than the national average.  Even a slight Republican national advantage would tip it red.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.  In spite of this, it has always been targeted by Republicans.  Bush tried very hard twice to win the state.  McCain’s whole electoral strategy for the last two weeks of his campaign was based on winning Pennsylvania.  Republicans have lost it close, like in 2004 when Bush came 2.5 points short of victory; and large, like 2008 when McCain lost by 10 points.  Obama has been hugely unpopular in Western Pennsylvania since the beginning (McCain ran at or better than Bush 2004 numbers in metro Pittsburgh) and the key Philadelphia suburbs voted out two Democratic incumbents in favor of Republicans in 2010.  Pennsylvania has moved slightly to the right relative to the rest of the nation, and is only about a point more Democratic than the national average now.

Michigan: Michigan is one of the harder states to get a feel for because there has been one of the most volatile states in the past decade.  In 2006, Democrats had a roughly 20 point statewide sweep.  In 2010, Republicans won the Governor position by a nearly 20 point margin.  Obama received a very strong 57 percent here in 2008.  In 2010, the Two-Party vote was one point more Republican than an already strong Republican showing.  Right now, Michigan is about two points more Democratic than the rest of the country, which lines up with Obama’s relative approval ratings.

New Mexico: New Mexico was a state that Bush won narrowly in 2004, but then moved solidly into the Democratic column.  After 2008, Democrats controlled the Governorship, both Senate seats, and all three House seats.  In 2010, there was some pushback against this monopoly.  Susana Martinez was elected governor and Republicans won a House seat.  However, even in a very good Republican year like 2010, Republicans couldn’t win the Two-Party congressional vote.  This does lead to the conclusion that New Mexico is at least a few points more Democratic than the rest of the nation.  It would likely take a Republican to get a popular vote total of around 53 percent to claim victory in the Land of Enchantment.

In case of blowout: There are five states that could be in play in case of a sizable GOP victory.  These states would require a Republican to win roughly 55-56 percent of the vote, a better percentage than George H.W. Bush won in 1988.  Minnesota is the most winnable of these states for Republicans.  Bush and McCain tried hard to turn it red, but it still has an overall Democratic lean.  While not nearly as Democratic as it once was, it would require a Republican to get 54-55 percent there to win.

New Jersey is a state that whose state political dynamics have moved towards the right since 2008.  Chris Christie’s victory is the most vivid expression of this, but a series of Congressional wins and a large Democratic Party identification decline mean that a Republican would need about 55 percent nationally to win here, which is somewhat less than would have been required in the past decade.  Maine is also a beneficiary of a noticeable Republican trend in the Northeast.  There has been much greater success on the state level, where Republicans control all the levers of power, than on a national level, as both Democratic members of Congress survived credible but not dangerous challenges in 2010.  It would require about 56 percent nationwide to flip the entirety of the state.

The Pacific Northwest has two states that are on the edge of being swing states, but have fallen away from Republicans in the past decade or two.  Oregon is about one or two points more favorable to Republicans than Washington, but they have similar political cultures.  The Pacific Northwest has been relatively content with the Age of Obama.  There was no wave of discontent in these states in 2010.  The big cities, and even increasingly the suburbs, are now super-Democratic, and the rest of their states can’t overcome these strong margins.  It would take around 57 percent nationally to win over Washington.

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Swing State Analysis: Part One

Monday, September 26th, 2011

After going through the close, contested states in the past three segments, I now want to use the data in those installments to determine which are going to be the most important states in 2012.  Some of the states in past postings will not determine who the next President will be.  Of the 19 states that I went over, 12 should be true swing states that could be won by either President Obama or his Republican opponent.  Two states profiled should be solidly Republican, and five others should stay in the Obama column.

I have grouped the states into a few tiers.  It is likely that all the states in each tier would be won by the same candidate.  The states are listed in order, starting with the safest Republican state and ending with the most secure Democratic state.  The baseline Republican Electoral College total without any states below would be 170, exactly 100 short of the 270 electoral votes required for victory.

Almost Certain GOP states: These are the two states that are almost certainly in the Republican column in 2012.  Obama would need to outdo his 2008 performance to win these.

Indiana: Obama’s shock victory here looks to be a one time fluke, partly based on Chicago’s proximity to the state, and McCain’s opposition to farm subsidies led to 15-20 point Republican declines in some northern farm counties.  Last year’s midterms were a return to the typical Republican proclivities of the state.  Obama still will run better than a typical Democrat in a state next door to his, but Indiana won’t be competitive unless the election is already over before Election Day.

Missouri: This is the only state on this list that John McCain won.  There is no reason to think it will flip in 2012.  If anything, Missouri has trended to the right in the intervening three years.  Roy Blunt, from the state’s top Republican family, easily beat Robin Carnahan, of the state’s top Democratic family.  Every House member outside St. Louis and Kansas City is likely to be a Republican after redistricting.  Missouri is on the verge of falling out of swing state status.

Both of these states would only need a national Republican popular vote percentage of about 45 percent to be won by the GOP nominee.  Even McCain received 46.5% of the two-party vote.  These states shouldn’t be hard for whoever the Republican candidate will be to win.  Adding these states to the Republican nominee would get the electoral vote total to 191.

Mandatory GOP States: The next four states are the beginning of the twelve true swing states.  For a Republican to win, they will almost assuredly need all four of these states.

New Hampshire: Are you surprised that New Hampshire is this early in the order?  You’re not wrong for thinking so.  Even in 2004, Bush couldn’t win New Hampshire.  There are seven states below it that Bush was able to win.  What puts it this high is that it has swung hard to the right in the age of Obama.  It may be easier for a small state to move so quickly.  Accordingly, only Rhode Island had a greater decline in Democratic Party identification since early 2009.  Obama has been markedly more unpopular here than even the overall Democratic Party brand.  Obama’s approval ratings average in the first half of 2011 are at the same level as Texas and Tennessee.  Republicans won back both House seats against incumbent Democrats and won an open Senate race by nearly twenty points.  At this rate, a Republican would only need approximately 46 percent nationally to win here.

North Carolina: The first in a series of South Atlantic states, North Carolina was also a surprise Obama victory in 2008.  His one point victory in a previously strong Republican state was the textbook example of how Obama was able to expand the electorate by generating record turnout and margins from minorities and young people.  No Democrat could have won North Carolina without Obama’s passionate connection to the large black and university communities in the state.  Without “surge voting”, the state reverted to its pre-2008 political layout in 2010.  While it is somewhat more Democratic than it was a decade ago, it will require a repeat of 2008 for Obama to win it next year.

Virginia: Obama’s 2008 victory in the Old Dominion was the culmination of a standout decade for Virginia Democrats.  It was also the high tide of that trend, and ever since Election Day 2008, Democrats in Virginia have suffered numerous defeats from the local level all the way to the Governor’s House.  While it is unlikely that Republicans will be able to repeat the smashing victories they won in 2009, a more modest win on the scale of the 2010 two-party Congressional vote, where Republicans ran three points ahead of a strong national Republican showing would still dramatically hurt Obama’s reelection prospects.

Florida: Florida might be the archetypical swing state in the general public’s imagination.  It remains the largest seriously contested state at the presidential level.  But it has not been in the center of the national political balance since 2000.  Bush had a somewhat under-the-radar relatively large victory in 2004.  Even in 2008, Obama couldn’t do better than 51 percent—and that was aided by a housing bubble that hit Florida particularly hard.  Republicans had about the best election cycle imaginable in 2010, winning every statewide election, and an astounding 62 percent of the two-party Congressional vote.  Republicans should not expect that dominant of a showing in 2012.  But a state that narrowly went for Obama has distanced itself from its 2008 vote.

If Republicans were to win all four of these states, which are a virtual requirement for victory, they would have 252 electoral votes, only 18 short of victory.  It would only require a Republican national popular vote percentage of roughly 46-47% to win these states.  Due to the dynamics of the next few states below, Obama almost certainly has to win one of the three South Atlantic states.  Losing Florida would particularly be a heavy blow to his reelection hopes.

The Deciding State: The value of New Hampshire’s shift to the right can be observed here.  This is because the state that would get Republicans to 270 electoral votes would be…

Ohio: This has been the lynchpin of Republican electoral strategy for years.  A Republican has never been elected President without winning Ohio.  There is every reason to believe this is true for 2012 as well.  By almost every measure available, Ohio is two points more Republican than the national average.  Obama won 51 percent here in 2008, two points behind the 53 percent he earned nationally.  The two-party Congressional vote in 2010 was 56-44 Republican, precisely two points more Republican than the national average.  Gallup’s average approval rating for Obama for the first half of 2011 has Ohio two points below the national average.  Consequentially, we would expect it to flip to the Republican candidate if they were to earn 48 percent of the national popular vote.

New Hampshire becoming a Republican leaning swing state is so valuable, because adding it to the list of states above puts a Republican 18 electoral votes short of victory.  Guess how many electoral votes Ohio has?  Eighteen exactly.  Thanks to the effects of reapportionment and the shift in New Hampshire, a Republican can win without any further states.  Of course, this provides no margin of error, so a comprehensive Republican strategy will contest the states immediately below Ohio as if they are the determining states.  This is also why Obama needs to pick off a South Atlantic state.

Next time, I will go through the states that are truly in the middle, and the states where a successful Republican could put in play.

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How Netflix’s Stumble Benefits Moviegoers and Advertisers

Friday, September 23rd, 2011

In July, movie rental industry leader Netflix changed their pricing policy and increased rates, separating their on-demand/streaming and by mail services. This unexpected move outraged customers and led to a 50% drop in stock value.  How does this blunder change the movie watching industry for both consumers and advertisers? 

Netflix developed a following by offering simple and inexpensive movie rentals as an alternative to the rising costs of theater tickets. According to Arbitron research, 51% of adults 18+ have not seen a movie in a theater in the past three months. Meanwhile, during the same time frame, 26% of those surveyed have used Netflix or the other two players in the marketplace, RedBox and Blockbuster.com. How do these companies compare in the now more competitive marketplace?

Each company offers movie watching experiences, but in varying plans and prices. In order to compare each equally, I chose the same movie throughout for the example and used a frequency of five watched movies a month to determine the cost per disc for the monthly plans.

X-Men: First Class opened at the box office on 6/3 and moviegoers shelled out $11 a ticket in order to see it at their local multiplex.  This does not include popcorn, soda, or IMAX.

Three months later, on 9/9, the comic book movie came out on DVD/Blu-Ray exclusively on Blockbuster.com. The former in-store rental giant offers multiple services for their rentals including on-demand/streaming, at a local store, and by mail. Their by mail method is an $8 monthly fee, which comes out to roughly $1.50 a DVD or Blu-Ray. The on-demand rate for this movie is $3 per viewing and an in-store rental is $4.

Meanwhile, Netflix users must wait four weeks in order to get the same movie, and pay $2 a month extra for Blu-Ray discs by mail, for an average of $2 a disc. On the other hand, their on-demand service is an $8 monthly fee for unlimited viewings, and using the same frequency as earlier is $1.50 a viewing.

The other player in the market is RedBox, which offers walk up kiosks for $1 per DVD and $3 per Blu-Ray rental for this particular movie at the same release date as Netflix. With 28,000 locations and no monthly fee or commitment, the Coinstar owned company offers a viable option as well.

The last option for an eager X-Men fan would be to just walk into Best Buy and buy it for $18. 

Each company has competitive edges and disadvantages, but Netflix’s changes increased the competition in the marketplace, benefitting the consumer.

Even though these rental companies are growing in influence due to low cost and ease in use, movie theaters are still the main avenue for advertisers.  Currently Netflix, Blockbuster.com, and RedBox do not sell advertising before the previews accompanying the movie.  Other streaming services, like Hulu, sell 15-30 second spots to various clientele before each of their videos.  Meanwhile, movie theaters have been increasing their sales in the ad space before the trailers to the same clients.  Their audiences are not distracted, unlike viewers at home with DVR, Mobile, or Internet access, and according to research are more likely to remember the advertiser’s message.

Without leaving the couch, moviegoers can watch the latest X-Men movie for $1.50-$3, walk out to their mailbox for $1.50-$2, drive to the local shopping center for $3-$4, see it in a theater for $11 and own it for $18. However, advertisers can only reach the consumers in one of these scenarios. Maybe Netflix can recoup lost revenue by including a 15 second spot for Coke before each of their on-demand videos. Perhaps Blockbuster.com can help recover from bankruptcy by including a coupon flier from Pizza Hut in each of their mailings.  While Netflix’s stumble opened up the marketplace for competitors, the advertising potential is already wide open.  Only time will tell the future of this medium.

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Pandora or iHeartRadio? The New Battleground for Internet Radio

Monday, September 19th, 2011

This coming weekend, Clear Channel is hosting a huge music festival featuring Lady Gaga and Jay-Z in order to promote its newest venture, iHeartRadio. This online radio and mobile app is a new rival to Pandora, which is the current leader in the marketplace with over 100 million listeners.

While digital radio is still carving out a small niche in the overall radio audience, the numbers are trending up with younger demos. According to Arbitron research, 18% of adults 18+ use the internet to listen to radio online and 14% use their mobile devices for music as well.  Of those surveyed who listen to online radio, 50% are 18-35, 38% college educated, and 58% male, which is 30-50% higher than the average 18+ adult.  Pandora recently released ratings numbers showing they are competitive with traditional radio stations.

Meanwhile, iHeartRadio is coming into this market with Clear Channel’s immense resources. While Pandora boasts 100 million listeners, Clear Channel has 800 stations, in 150 markets, reaching 237 million listeners.  Consequently, iHeartRadio offers a music library of over 11 million songs, compared to 900,000 for Pandora. Both provide websites and mobile apps that offer customizable channels based on a user’s taste in music, while iHeartRadio has the added feature of including local Clear Channel traditional stations anywhere.

What does this mean for consumers and advertisers? Now consumers now have another option when listening to radio on their computers or mobile devices. Clear Channel may tout more songs, but some listeners might enjoy Pandora’s indie/small label feel more than the Ryan Seacrest Top 40. Meanwhile for advertisers, Pandora provides ad space on the site as well as on the app, which we utilized here at Smart Media Group below:

 Currently iHeartRadio does not have advertising on their app or site, but still feeds in 30-60 second ads from the local station.  Therefore, in order to penetrate this growing market, agencies should utilize both services by placing interactive ads on Pandora as well as traditional radio on key Clear Channel stations.

Further reading:  Clear Channel’s iHeartRadio takes on Pandora

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Statewide Political Shifts 2008-2011: West

Wednesday, September 14th, 2011

Statewide Political Shifts: Part Three

Generally, the western states were a source of Republican strength in the 20th Century.  A shift that began even while FDR was still in the White House drove the Rocky Mountain states to become among the most reliably Republican states in the country.  The Pacific coast states were swing states, and California, the biggest electoral prize of all, produced two presidents.  In recent times, the picture has become more complicated.  Some Mountain states, like Utah, Idaho, and Wyoming are among the most Republican states in the nation.  California has become the flagship Democratic state.  The Pacific Northwest has trended left.  And some Mountain states are now some of the hottest contested states every election cycle.

To figure out the most competitive states in the West in 2012, I will continue to look at the 2008 Presidential vote, the Congressional two-party vote (removing all third parties) and relevant statewide races in 2010, comparing state level Obama approval ratings with his national average for the first six months of 2011 (measured by Gallup), and the decline in Democratic Party identification, also measured by Gallup.  The baseline for the poll is 47 percent approval, which is somewhat higher than Obama’s current approval ratings.

Looking at these states more in depth:

Colorado: In the past half decade, few states have been better breeding grounds of success for Democrats than Colorado.  A state that Bob Dole was able to carry, Colorado went from being a Republican leaning swing state to giving strong backing to Democrats in 2006 and 2008.  Obama did well here, and added it to his list of Bush 2004 pickups.  Colorado had perhaps the most disappointing showing for Republicans in 2010.  A disastrous Republican Governor primary was marred by the leading contender being a plagiarist and the fringe nominee being so out of his depth that Tom Tancredo got 37 percent on a third party bid.  This weighed down Republicans in the Senate race, which Democrats won by two points.  In spite of this mismanagement, Republican won the two-party Congressional vote by five points.  With some better luck, it could have been a good Republican year here also.  Obama is running three points behind his national approval rating.  Colorado is shaping up to be a hotly contested state, but it is not as Democratic as its current representation would indicate.

Nevada: Nevada is another traditional Republican state that has trended Democratic in the past half decade.  Bush was able to win the state in both 2000 and 2004.  As in other Mountain West states, Obama showed strength, receiving 55 percent here.  2010 was a mixed bag for both parties.  Republican Brian Sandoval won the Governorship over Harry Reid’s son rather easily.  Republicans regained the suburban Las Vegas seat they lost in 2008 and won the two-party Congressional vote 53-47.  But the most memorable Nevada election in 2010 was the US Senate race, where a vulnerable Harry Reid was able to hold off Sharron Angle.  Considering the results in the other races, there is good reason to think a different Republican would have won.  Like Colorado, Obama is running three points behind his national approval average here.  The Democratic Party ID decline is 5 points, somewhat less than the national average, however.  Nevada and Colorado seem like a package deal.  It seems likely that either Obama or his Republican opponent will win both or lose both.

New Mexico: On a broad level, New Mexico is a bellwether state.  It was one of a few states that voted for George W. Bush once; he barely lost in 2000 and barely won in 2004.  While its overall partisan balance is close to the national average, its hard to say New Mexico is typical of anywhere.  It has one of the largest American Indian populations.  It is the most Hispanic state in America, but most are long settled in America, some with families who arrived before the signing of the Declaration of Independence.  2008 was a complete Democratic sweep.  Besides an easy Obama victory, Democrats came out of the election controlling the Governorship, both Senate seats, and all three House seats.  This monopoly was broken in 2010.  Republicans won back the Governorship and a House seat.  This was not as substantial a victory as Republicans experienced in other states; Democrats still won the two-party Congressional vote by three points.  Obama is one point more unpopular here than his national average, but the Democratic decline is only three points, one of the smallest declines in the nation.  It could very well be the case that Obama is of a magnitude more unpopular than the Democratic Party itself.

Oregon: George W. Bush came within four points of winning Oregon in 2004.  Since then, little has gone right for Republicans.  Gordon Smith lost his Senate seat in 2006, and Obama won 57% of the vote in 2008.  Some states in 2010, like Wisconsin and Michigan, reversed years of Democratic domination.  That didn’t happen in Oregon.  Republicans failed to pick up a single House seat.  An appealing Governor candidate, former Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley, was neck and neck in the polls, but failed to win.  Democrats still won the two-party Congressional vote by five points.  It is almost as if the political environment in Oregon didn’t change from 2008.  The Republican wave so apparent across the country petered out by the time it hit the Pacific.  While Obama is running slightly behind his national average here, the Democratic Party decline is on the lower side.  Oregon relative to the rest of the nation has shifted more Democratic in the past decade, and would now be harder to win for a Republican than many large industrial Midwestern states.

Washington: There have been a series of very, very close statewide elections in the past decade that Democrats have pulled out in recounts.  In 2004, the Governor contest between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi had a razor thin margin.  Rossi’s supporters accused Gregoire’s campaign of vote fraud after she went ahead of Rossi in the recount.  In 2008, a rematch between Gregoire and Rossi also was closely decided, but Gregoire won with a slightly larger margin this time.  After a major Democratic victory across the board in 2008, Rossi thought the third time would be the charm, this time challenging Senator Patty Murray.  Once again, Rossi came up short, this time by five points.  Republicans did win one formerly Democratic House seat, but the two-party Congressional vote was a 53-47 Democratic win.  Obama is three points more popular here than the national average, and the Democratic decline of 5.6 points is relatively small, though more than neighboring Oregon.  Obama has been more successful at bringing the Pacific Northwest into his coalition than nearly any other region of the country.  It will be very tough for a Republican to win Washington in 2012.

Colorado and Nevada are true swing states that will likely mirror the national popular vote.  New Mexico is likely two or three points more Democratic than the national average, though definitely still in play.  And the Pacific Northwest states are more Democratic relative to the rest of the country than they’ve ever been.  It would take a double digit Republican victory to win them over.

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